MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...FAR SWRN KS...OK/TX
   PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708...
   
   VALID 172240Z - 172345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THREAT HAS INCREASED AS TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA
   EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AREAL EXPANSION OF WW 708 HAS BEEN
   COORDINATED WITH WFO AMA FOR THE REST OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES.
   ALTHOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR SERN CO/NERN NM INTO A
   ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES IN SWRN KS...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM.
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE RATON MESA OVER
   UNION COUNTY NM. GIVEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND DESTABILIZATION
   WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THIS
   CONVECTION...CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE PLAINS AND
   RESULT IN ACTIVITY SPREADING E TO THE W/NW OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY INVOF AMA. GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
   50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500
   TO 2500 J/KG/...SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
   REMAIN LIKELY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/17/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   36680375 37120334 37330240 37470110 37320017 36970021
               36320058 35580118 35290164 35210210 35280248 35780329
               36150353 36680375