Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1911
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1911 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161747Z - 161945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO AND
   STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRENDS IN
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z SHOWS AN EASTWARD-MOVING INVERTED
   SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSON MS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
   GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CAMERON LA. AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY...MARKING THE
   NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR...WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH
   OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING HAVE EXHIBITED ONLY
   BRIEF STRUCTURE/ORGANIZATION...WITH AN ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
   OFFSHORE 75 MI SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES. 

   GRADUAL MOISTENING/POCKETS OF HEATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WITHIN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC
   LARGE-SCALE FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS IN THE FORM OF BOTH SUPERCELL AND
   LINEAR STRUCTURES. LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 /PER KLCH
   VWP AND RAP SOUNDINGS/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AND SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTHWARD-MOVING EAST-WEST BOUNDARY.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF A TORNADO WATCH BY 21Z.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 11/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29769328 30089323 30539283 30619249 30739201 30809148
               30559079 29859055 29309052 29089066 29059103 29199170
               29259233 29409302 29609323 29769328 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 16, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities