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Mesoscale Discussion 1912
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS / SERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162350Z - 170115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM FROM TORNADO
   WATCH 550 AND WOULD POTENTIALLY BE ISSUED FOR REMAINING AREAS OF
   SERN LA AND SRN MS.

   DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE BAND OF STORMS LOCATED FROM S-CNTRL LA
   NEWD INTO S-CNTRL MS CONTAINS A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE LINE.  A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THIS
   BAND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS
   PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 40 MI N OF MCB WITH GRADUAL NEWD
   DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW THIS EVENING.  CONCURRENTLY...A MARINE WARM
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
   AND INTO SWRN AL OVER THE NEXT 2-6 HRS.  

   STRONG SWLY LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS
   EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVES EWD NEAR THE
   ARKLATEX AROUND MIDNIGHT.  THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH A
   SLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /64-67 DEG DEWPOINTS/ WILL PROBABLY
   MAINTAIN SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE
   OF ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
   HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE MAY BE IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD
   ACROSS SRN MS AND 04-09Z IN FAR SERN LA.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29008913 29049033 30998988 31419006 31758916 31718857
               31198834 29008913 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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