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Mesoscale Discussion 1913
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0843 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / FAR SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 550...

   VALID 170243Z - 170345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 550 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND
   THE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME OF TORNADO WATCH 550.  A REPLACEMENT TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AND WILL COVER ERN
   PORTIONS OF WATCH 550 AND INCLUDE DOWNSTREAM AREAS OVER SRN MS...FAR
   SERN LA...AND PERHAPS FAR SWRN AL.

   DISCUSSION...THE 00Z LIX RAOB SAMPLED AN ADEQUATELY MOIST/MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE S OF A MARINE
   WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER SRN MS AND SRN AL.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND
   SHEAR /270 M2 PER S2 EFFECTIVE SRH PER OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS/ AND
   LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES PERSISTING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   SHORT-TERM...THE AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LIVINGSTON/ST. HELENA
   PARISH LA TORNADIC SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT THE GREATEST
   NEAR-TERM TORNADO POTENTIAL COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION.  

   LONGER-TERM...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS AND INCREASING ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES /SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   LEWPS/ LATE TONIGHT.  THE LONGER-LIVED CIRCULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE
   MOST ASSOCIATED WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29159033 29259127 29619191 30359143 31828923 31958837
               31578802 31048829 29159033 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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