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Mesoscale Discussion 1914
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL / SERN MS / SERN LA / WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 551...

   VALID 170550Z - 170645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 551 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS/BOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROKEN CONVECTIVE
   BAND ALONG THE FRONT WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD WIND
   DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...05Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB
   LOW INVOF MEI WITH A MARINE WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS
   SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
   HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER CNTRL AL DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS /5 MB/
   WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX MOVES EWD TOWARDS
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.  

   MESONET OBSERVATIONS TO THE N OF MOB IN SWRN AL INDICATE DEWPOINTS
   ARE IN THE MID 60S DEG F AS OF 0530Z.  THIS NWD ADVANCE OF
   MOISTURE/MARGINAL BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT TO THE NE OF
   THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  FARTHER
   S...MOISTURE NEAR THE MS AND AL GULF COASTS HAS INCREASED INTO THE
   66-68 DEG F RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THEREBY CONTRIBUTING TO
   GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SMALL-SCALE BOWS
   WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL BAND MAY POSE AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND
   TORNADO RISK.

   FARTHER E OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
   CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.  THE WIND PROFILE WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
   AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS
   TO WHETHER IT POSES A SEVERE THREAT PRIOR TO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
   LINE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

   ..SMITH.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29509131 30729015 31868912 32218834 32258781 32018739
               31098677 30758669 30348714 30348752 30998739 31078829
               30508914 29249046 29169100 29509131 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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