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Mesoscale Discussion 1915
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 170713Z - 170745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON WITH THE
   AFFECTED WFO/S IN SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  A TORNADO
   THREAT AND A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD
   ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. 
   THESE THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
   WITH DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR.

   DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
   WAS LOCATED NEAR MEI IN EAST-CENTRAL/SERN MS WITH A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH SRN AL /JUST N OF MGM/ AND THEN THROUGH SRN
   GA /APPROXIMATELY 35 N ABY/ TO THE GA COAST NORTH OF SSI.  A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDED SSWWD FROM THE LOW AND HAD ALMOST OVERTAKEN MUCH OF
   THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL THROUGH
   SERN MS AND FAR SERN LA INTO THE NWRN GULF.  MEANWHILE...A MARINE
   BOUNDARY MARKING THE RETURN OF TROPICAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS /AROUND 70
   F/ AND LOWER LCLS HAD MOVED INLAND OVER SWRN AL /NEAR MOB/ AND THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN EXTENDING ESEWD ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST
   /NEAR FORT WALTON/ TO IN VICINITY OF TPA. 

   THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT INTO
   THE MORNING PER A STRONG 50 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
   AL/NWRN GA.  DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST STATES AND SERN U.S. A SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
   MAY TEND TO VEER SOME...SURFACE WINDS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN GULF
   INTO SWRN GA SHOULD REMAIN BACKED AND ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   /INCREASE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/ FOR A TORNADO THREAT INTO THE
   MORNING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29858833 31858769 32038587 32048538 31918411 31738310
               29598355 29138462 29228554 29328700 29858833 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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