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Mesoscale Discussion 1916
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SERN MS AND FAR SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 551...

   VALID 170821Z - 171015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 551 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT AND A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE VALID PORTION OF WW 551...FROM FAR SERN LA THROUGH FAR
   SERN MS INTO ADJACENT SWRN AL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR AN
   EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  COUNTIES AND PARISHES WEST OF THE FRONT CAN
   CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THIS WATCH WITH THE FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...MARKING THE ERN EXTENT OF A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.

   DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
   FALLS /3-4 MB PER 2 HRS/ LOCATED IN NWRN GA...WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
   LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM ITS 06Z MEI POSITION TO NOW NEAR TCL. 
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW.  MEANWHILE...THE
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL TO FAR SERN LA INTO THE GULF OF
   MEXICO.

   THE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN A
   LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
   FROM WEST-EAST.  THIS TREND HAS BEEN NOTED ON OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES...WHILE RECENT MOB VAD SHOWED STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 400 M2/S2 AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR
   NEAR 40 KT/ GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR.  THESE
   FACTORS COMBINED WITH LOWER LCLS AS HIGHER-THETAE AIR ADVANCES
   INLAND.  MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE OBSERVATION AT ASD AND THE SLIDELL
   LA VAD SHOWED WLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL INDICATING THE
   PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE DECREASE IN THE OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT.

   ..PETERS.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   28719097 29968977 30948890 31618818 31618803 31188793
               30238785 29118852 28598893 28478929 28719097 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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