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Mesoscale Discussion 1917
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...PART OF NRN FL...AND
   SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 552...

   VALID 171039Z - 171145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 552 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 552 IN SRN AL AND THE
   FL PANHANDLE.  THIS THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING TO AFFECT MORE OF SWRN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
   AND INTO PARTS OF NRN FL...RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR A NEW TORNADO
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED PERIODIC SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WHICH HAD JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 552. 
   MEANWHILE...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS PROVED TO BE
   VERY CONDUCIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION/TORNADO THREAT WITH
   DISCRETE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE ZONE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SWRN GA
   WITH A SIMILAR THREAT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF WW 552 AFTER 11Z.

   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BUOY DATA INDICATED
   THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE HAD SHIFTED EWD AND AT 10Z EXTENDED
   FROM MAI SWD THROUGH BAY COUNTY FL TO BETWEEN BUOYS 42039 AND 42036.
   THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE ALSO WAS CONFIRMED WITH VEERING WINDS OBSERVED
   ON THE NOAA SHIP OREGON II /WTDO/ AS IT RECENTLY MOVED ACROSS THIS
   BOUNDARY.  A NWD INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NWD INTO CENTRAL GA. 
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S WILL SPREAD INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA
   THIS MORNING...WHILE VALUES AROUND 70 F PERSIST ACROSS THE FL
   PANHANDLE.

   TRENDS IN HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AT AND WEST OF EGLIN AFB WSR-88D HAVE
   BEEN SHRINKING...SUGGESTING A DIMINISHING TORNADO THREAT. 
   MEANWHILE...HODOGRAPHS EAST OF EGLIN AFB...AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
   CONFLUENCE ZONE...REMAIN ENLARGED /SUPPORTIVE FOR A TORNADO THREAT
   WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2 PER S2/.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30448811 31898696 32168620 32458402 32248311 31248293
               29838308 29248333 29048412 29108512 29628607 29768838
               30448811 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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