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Mesoscale Discussion 1918
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...PART OF NRN FL...SRN AND
   CENTRAL GA...AND SRN/ERN SC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 552...553...

   VALID 171343Z - 171515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 552...553...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 552 AND ALL OF WW 553 THIS MORNING.

   A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN-ERN GA
   INTO PARTS OF SRN AND ERN SC.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT-TERM /THROUGH 15Z/...THE GREATEST TORNADO
   THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SERN AL AND FROM
   THE CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA.  THESE AREAS ARE
   LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF AN EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 13Z
   EXTENDED FROM FAR ERN TN THROUGH NWRN GA TO EAST-CENTRAL AND SERN
   AL...AND THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  AN INFLUX OF RICH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   AROUND 70 F WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO SRN GA THIS MORNING...
   RESULTING IN LOW LCLS AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING.  BACKED
   SURFACE WINDS /S-SSELY/ OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL TO SRN GA
   WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO
   THREAT.

   MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN GA INTO PARTS OF SRN
   AND ERN SC PER MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC.  THIS TREND IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...RESULTING IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT AS ONGOING STORMS
   IN SWRN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GA EXIT WW 553 BETWEEN 15-1530Z.  ALTHOUGH
   SURFACE WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SSWLY AS THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY...FORECAST
   HODOGRAPHS PER 11Z RAP INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SPEED AND SOME
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT /SFC-1 KM SRH AT CHS RANGING
   FROM 200-300 M2/S2 INTO THE AFTERNOON/.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   29958656 32128528 32848488 33218383 33248232 33628161
               34208027 33947995 33007969 32168012 30998115 30758149
               30558219 29838260 29458305 29148342 29238395 29248502
               29958656 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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