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Mesoscale Discussion 1919
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MD 1919 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0856 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 171456Z - 171700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SOON FOR ERN NC AS UNSTABLE
   AIR IS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE AND IN A FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONFLUENCE LINE OVER
   THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S RAPIDLY SURGING
   NWD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO THE W. ALSO
   EVIDENT IS AREAS OF HEATING ACROSS NC. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   ARE CURRENTLY COOL...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND A CONTINUED ADVECTION
   OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED
   INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   OR SEVERE WIND GUST. THE MHX VWP SHOWS A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR
   ROTATING STORMS...AND ACTIVITY OFFSHORE IS CELLULAR AS WELL.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33547855 34507935 35107887 36137678 36257559 35477530
               35137537 34487636 33547855 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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