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Mesoscale Discussion 1921
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 554...

   VALID 171819Z - 172015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 554 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR A FEW
   TORNADOES/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CONFLUENCE LINE
   CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF NC...GENERALLY FROM
   ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH. THIS LINE IS ENHANCING
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG IT...WITH CELLS REMAINING IN RELATIVELY
   DISCRETE MODES. HOWEVER...AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   KEEP MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...ANY LARGER THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE
   RESULT OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND RESULTANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM A
   SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 

   MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES BEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY REMAINS
   OFFSHORE...BUT VALUES OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG NOW EXIST ACROSS ERN
   NC. WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS PRESENT ON
   THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MAXIMA TO THE WEST...AND THE
   CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC...ANY ENHANCEMENT IN
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35657793 36947544 35067544 33777794 35657793 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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