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Mesoscale Discussion 1922
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 556...

   VALID 172010Z - 172115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 556 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND ONE OR
   TWO TORNADOES AS IT PROGRESSES E/SE.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SQUALL LINE ON AN
   MGF-VDF-LEE LINE...CONTINUING TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
   THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   CONTINUES...AS FAVORABLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY /E.G SBCAPE VALUES OF
   1000-2000 J PER KG/ AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
   PRESENT. DESPITE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME AND WITH
   SOUTHWARD EXTENT...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR VALUES UPWARDS OF 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. INDEED...LATEST KTBW DATA INDICATE SEVERAL
   BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF WEAK ROTATION.
   THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE LOW LCLS AND PRESENCE OF THESE BOWING
   SEGMENTS...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES CONTINUES.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26998333 27458314 29148153 29108094 27018141 26998333 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2014
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