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Mesoscale Discussion 1924
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 180853Z - 181500Z

   SUMMARY...A DISCRETE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
   ESTABLISHED ALONG THE MIDDLE OF LAKE ONTARIO.  THIS BAND INITIALLY
   FORMED OVER FAR NRN OSWEGO INTO ADJACENT SRN JEFFERSON COUNTIES AND
   CENTRAL/NRN LEWIS COUNTY AND FAR NRN HERKIMER COUNTY.  HOWEVER...A
   CONTINUED NWD SHIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE BAND THEN
   BECOMING ESTABLISHED FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME /THROUGH AT
   LEAST 18Z/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN JEFFERSON...NRN LEWIS AND PART OF
   SRN ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES.  SNOWFALL RATES IN THE BAND SHOULD EXCEED
   2 INCHES PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...SINCE 07Z...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
   DISCRETE SNOW BAND BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ALONG THE LAKE FETCH
   OF LAKE ONTARIO.  IR RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMED THIS DISCRETE BAND
   EXTENDING FROM W-E ACROSS MORE THAN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
   LAKE...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER ERN NY WILL
   CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT WLY
   TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.  THIS WLY TO WSWLY
   FLOW PATTERN WILL BE REINFORCED GIVEN VEERING LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC
   WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EWD
   FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SWRN QUEBEC THROUGH 18Z.  EACH OF THE SSEO
   MEMBER CAMS SUGGEST THE NWD SHIFT OF THE DISCRETE BAND WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH 12Z AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.

   A TIME SERIES OF A RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT WATERTOWN NY /MODIFIED
   FOR A BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE NEAR THE LAKE/ SUGGESTS THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. 
   THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING...AS THE INVERSION
   HEIGHT RISES WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 200 J/KG.  THESE
   FACTORS WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES TO EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

   ..PETERS.. 11/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43767575 43747607 43717625 43917638 44187607 44347546
               44357501 44267475 43867482 43817490 43767575 

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Page last modified: November 18, 2014
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