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Mesoscale Discussion 1925
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MD 1925 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY STATE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 181800Z - 182200Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 3-4" PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT
   4-6 HOURS JUST S OF BUF.  A SWD SHIFT AND WEAKENING OF THE BAND IS
   EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...A STEADY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND PERSISTS ALONG THE
   LONG-AXIS ORIENTATION OF LAKE ERIE...INTO SUBURBAN AREAS IMMEDIATELY
   S OF THE NEARLY PERFECT ALONG-LAKE FETCH AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
   BELOW 700 MB WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS.VERY LARGE AIR-LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE DRIVING
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE MIXING WITHIN THE LAKE PLUME...AS EVIDENCED BY
   THE 30-40 KT WNW-NW SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THE
   BAND OVER THE NE PART OF LAKE ERIE.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION NOW /AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW
   LIGHTNING FLASHES IN THE PAST HOUR/...AND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
   FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  NEAR OR AFTER 00Z...EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
   WILL LOWER AND THE DEPTH OF THE LAKE BAND WILL BEGIN TO
   DIMINISH.....COINCIDENT WITH VEERING OF THE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A
   RESULTANT SWD SHIFT OF THE BAND AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES E OF
   LAKE ERIE.  THUS...THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS IMMEDIATELY S OF BUF WHERE
   EXCEPTIONAL SNOW TOTALS NEAR 4 FEET HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.

   ..THOMPSON.. 11/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42737933 42987867 43047830 42997790 42857782 42737798
               42617834 42507888 42427927 42327969 42357989 42537987
               42737933 

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Page last modified: November 18, 2014
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