Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1926
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1926 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE ERIE IN WRN NY

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 182326Z - 190200Z

   SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
   PROBABLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOW LITTLE
   OVERALL MOVEMENT IN AN INTENSE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND DOWN THE AXIS
   OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE IN WRN NY.  SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
   SURROUNDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8-9 DEG C PER KM RANGE DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS.  LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY TO THE
   ESE OF BUF.

   AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS --CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER SWRN
   ONTARIO-- PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE
   SNOWFALL RATES IS EXPECTED.  MODELS VARY SOME REGARDING THE VEERING
   OF THE FLOW TO A MORE WLY COMPONENT IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...BUT ONCE
   THIS OCCURS...A SLIGHT SWD SHIFT IN THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
   NEAR BUF MAY SHIFT INTO MORE OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CNTRL AND SRN
   PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY.

   ..SMITH.. 11/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42837888 42907855 42667842 42487873 42207954 42277978
               42477967 42837888 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 19, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities