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Mesoscale Discussion 1927
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO IN NWRN NY

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 190427Z - 190830Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/HR WILL CONTINUE FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A BROAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY
   SWD WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTYX SHOWS THE W-E ORIENTED
   BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO AND NWRN NY HAS BEGUN
   SHIFTING SWD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SLY SHIFT IN THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AS
   BOTH A SFC AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
   W. MOST SHORT-TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SWD MOVEMENT. OVER
   THE NEXT 4 HOURS...SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR ARE FORECAST
   AND THE HEAVY RATES ARE LIKELY ONGOING AT 0420Z GIVEN OBSERVED
   LIGHTNING FLASHES /THUNDERSNOW/ NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE LAKE FRONT INDICATE LOW-LEVEL
   INSTABILITY MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE THOUGH 08Z AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
   MOVES IN FROM THE W. THIS MAY CORRESPOND TO AN EVENTUAL DECREASE IN
   SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..GLEASON/SMITH.. 11/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43657518 43517615 43897630 44077523 43657518 

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Page last modified: November 19, 2014
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