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Mesoscale Discussion 1928
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0814 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 201414Z - 201845Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES /EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR/ AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MIDDAY IN LEE
   OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS /INCREASING HEIGHT OF THE INVERSION
   ACROSS LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TODAY/ ARE INDICATIVE OF THE
   COOLING TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  12Z SOUNDING AT
   BUF SHOWED SIMILAR TRENDS IN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS
   TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE
   RELATIVELY WARMER LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS PER
   12Z RAP/HRRR OVER AND EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CONFIRM THESE
   OBSERVATIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY.  THUS...THE INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE DEPTH SHOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ONGOING BANDS...FURTHER ENHANCING THE HEAVY
   SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..PETERS.. 11/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...

   LAT...LON   44377635 44607563 44617485 44277448 43247536 42287748
               42057948 42228044 43087900 43707815 44097703 44377635 

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Page last modified: November 20, 2014
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