MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0918 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NWRN OK / SRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 714...
   
   VALID 200218Z - 200245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 714 CONTINUES.
   
   ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
   INTO N-CNTRL OK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOWER TORNADO POTENTIAL
   ACROSS EXTREME S-CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   APPEARS IMPROBABLE AT THIS TIME.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM BARBER COUNTY
   KS S-SEWD INTO MAJOR COUNTY OK.  THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE
   OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED AS VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN OK WITH THE 00Z OUN RAOB SEEMINGLY
   REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS OVER N-CNTRL/NWRN OK.  KVNX RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS LOCATED ACROSS WOODWARD COUNTY W OF AFOREMENTIONED
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THE VCI VWP DISPLAYS VEERING BUT ONLY MODEST LOW
   LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM.  THIS MAY BE HAMPERING THE
   EXISTING STORM/S ABILITY TO AQUIRE LOW LEVEL ROTATION.  HOWEVER...IF
   STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AN ISOLD
   TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE.  WITH THAT SAID...INCREASING CINH DUE TO
   DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL ACT TO LESSEN
   THE TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME--WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLD DMGG WIND
   GUST BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW REPLACEMENT AS PLUME OF STRONGER HEIGHT
   FALLS OVERSPREADS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/20/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   35479835 35979961 36549963 37239892 37329760 36979637
               36139615 35539621 35489708 35479835