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Mesoscale Discussion 1931
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MD 1931 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 220533Z - 220630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN N-CENTRAL
   INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A MORE
   WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. A WATCH IS
   NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN S/SELY LOW LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
   MEXICO. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 35 KT AND
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 DEG C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT
   LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
   AFOREMENTIONED MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF
   THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER SPACE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 11/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33839728 33679690 33459672 32899666 32269680 31789698
               31139749 30919781 30849818 30959857 31229877 31659893
               32139889 32949847 33629800 33849761 33839728 

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Page last modified: November 22, 2014
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