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Mesoscale Discussion 1934
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 221945Z - 222045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND SPREAD INTO ADJACENT REGIONS OF
   SOUTH TX.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CAN BE
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
   SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...NWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF
   WEST TX.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH NUMEROUS/DEEPENING
   CU AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
   MID-LEVEL JET NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL MATURE AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS
   ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH TX SUGGEST
   SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPWARD EVOLVING SQUALL LINE MAY
   ULTIMATELY BE NOTED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADS TOWARD THE
   LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 21Z.

   ..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30319998 28829855 26039752 26039915 29570148 30319998 

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