MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...SERN LOWER MI...OH...NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 201542Z - 201745Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO
   BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   
   A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM WRN OH SWWD THROUGH
   CNTRL KY. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
   LAKES...EXTENDS FROM SERN LOWER MID INTO NERN IND. THE WARM SECTOR
   IN THIS REGION IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. MORNING RAOB
   DATA FROM WILMINGTON OH SHOWED WARM AIR ALOFT WITH -6 TO -7C AT 500
   MB WHICH IS LIMITING 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO AOB 6 C/KM.
   DESTABILIZATION WILL BE FURTHER MITIGATED OR SLOWED TO SOME DEGREE
   BY AREAS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MODEST WARMING OF THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
   GIVEN THE WEAK CAP EVIDENT ON THE MORNING RAOB DATA...STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN WARM
   SECTOR AND ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. KINEMATIC
   PROFILES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SWLY 40-45 KT BULK
   SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/20/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...
   GRR...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   41548094 40168091 37638339 37518514 38798526 39778563
               40518537 41398478 42368407 42198325 41638331 41408213
               41548094