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Mesoscale Discussion 1936
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/MIDDLE TX COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230135Z - 230300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
   OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST. AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED /BEYOND LOCAL EXTENSION/
   GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS TO THE
   CONTRARY.

   DISCUSSION...TWO CORRIDORS OF GENERAL UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING /AS OF 715 PM
   CST/...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
   CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY...AND TO A LESS-ORGANIZED EXTENT...IN AREAS
   NEAR/JUST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST OF AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO. THE AIR
   MASS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST IS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE...WITH THE 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATIVE
   OF 1900+ J/KG MLCAPE. SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SOME ADDITIONAL COASTAL AREAS
   NOT CURRENTLY COVERED UNDER SEVERE TSTM WATCH 557...HOWEVER CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE
   SHUNTED OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   FARTHER NORTH-NORTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY/I-35
   VICINITY...CONTINUED STORM MERGERS /AIDED BY SURGING OUTFLOW/ WITHIN
   A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NEAR/WSW OF AN
   EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK RELATIVELY
   MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THIS EVENING.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29879881 30209837 30409782 29679720 29359640 29369596
               29079515 28239658 27329746 28519816 29879881 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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