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Mesoscale Discussion 1937
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/COASTAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

   VALID 230351Z - 230445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
   SCHEDULED AT 04Z. A LOCALIZED/RELATIVELY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY
   CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR TONIGHT
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COAST. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT
   CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SHORT LINEAR SEGMENT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
   EAST OF I-35 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AS OF 945PM CST. GENERAL DECREASING
   TRENDS IN CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING/STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED...AND A
   CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED GIVEN A
   NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MEANWHILE...A
   SUBSTANTIAL QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE
   WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE GRAZING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
   COAST. SOME SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE MIDDLE/UPPER TX...HOWEVER THE MCS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
   OFFSHORE...WHILE OTHERWISE TENDING TO OUTPACE THE CORRIDOR OF
   GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

   ..GUYER.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29599715 30439702 30629609 30239395 29489413 26569649
               27309725 28469606 29599715 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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