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Mesoscale Discussion 1938
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230547Z - 230745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP
   INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA
   OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
   DECIDEDLY OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.

   DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER SOUTH TX...A
   SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
   LATE THIS EVENING /1145 PM CST/. KHGX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
   INCREASING COMMONALITY OF SQUALL LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
   OFFSHORE. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION
   PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ROUGHLY APPEARS TO DEMARCATE THE WARM
   FRONT AND RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F PER OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS. INLAND-DEVELOPING
   MESOVORTICES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
   UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LA COAST EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
   ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF
   THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT-ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND AND RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN LA COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE
   COASTAL-GRAZING SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
   THREAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INLAND.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29349506 29779496 30079380 29749119 29249092 29169116
               28929263 28089408 29349506 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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