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Mesoscale Discussion 1939
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230733Z - 231000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS
   OF SERN LA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT BUT A QLCS MESOVORTEX TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
   SQUALL LINE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NWRN
   GULF DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN INTENSE QLCS TRACKING
   ENEWD WITH THE EAST BREAKS OIL PLATFORM AND KHQI OBSERVING SEVERE
   GUSTS /75 AND 51 KT RESPECTIVELY/.  THE MARINE WARM FRONT IS ROUGHLY
   30 MI FROM THE LA COAST AND WILL LIKELY PENETRATE THE COAST AND
   TERREBONNE PARISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MESOLOW OVER THE
   NWRN GULF DEVELOPS NEWD INTO SWRN LA.  A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   S OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT. 
   LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THE BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE QLCS
   APPROACHING THE COAST OF ST. MARY AND TERREBONNE PARISH PRIOR TO
   10Z.  THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN LA AS THE WARM FRONT
   ADVANCES NWD AND AS THE QLCS APPROACHES.  GIVEN THE MOIST AND
   STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...A QLCS TORNADO IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER MESOVORTEX.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29599213 29889088 30208975 29708888 29078906 29009052
               29309190 29599213 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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