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Mesoscale Discussion 1940
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS / FAR SWRN AL / FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231401Z - 231500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME RECENT
   INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WITHIN A CONFLUENCE BAND OF STORMS OVER
   THE NERN GULF/FL PANHANDLE REGION.  A FEW STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED...WAA REGIME. 
   FARTHER W NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS
   MORNING AS UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ON THE LEADING EDGE
   OF THE COLD POOL/S GUST FRONT.  THE AIRMASS NEAR THE MS/AL COASTS IS
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEG F.  IF
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A WATCH WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30368879 30968778 30778577 30068490 29698508 30318652
               30208803 30368879 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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