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Mesoscale Discussion 1941
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SERN AL AND SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231720Z - 231815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
   AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.  TORNADO WATCH IS
   BEING CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...CIRCULATIONS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAVE
   GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER WRN FL PENINSULA.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   STRUGGLED PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY...SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ON
   THE ORDER OF 5.5 C/KM...THOUGH 1000 J/KG MLCAPE DOES EXTEND NWD
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF EVOLVING TSTMS.  WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
   MAXIMIZED WELL INLAND...FOCUS/VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE NARROW WARM SECTOR.  CURRENT THINKING IS
   ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOWER 70S. 
   WHILE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
   BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE NOTED WITH MOST DISCRETE SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

   ..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31508602 31418368 30018341 29608482 30228646 31508602 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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