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Mesoscale Discussion 1942
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND VICINITY
   INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN WA/FAR NWRN ORE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231755Z - 232000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A STRONG SPEED MAX IN THE BASE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
   MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NWRN WA IS ENHANCING DEEP SHEAR
   AS SAMPLED BY THE RTX VWP. THIS VWP INDICATES A
   WAA/VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENHANCING
   LOW-LEVEL SRH...AND SUPPORTING 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. SFC
   OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE SFC
   FLOW...FAVORING INLAND PENETRATION OF MARGINAL PBL-ROOTED 
   BUOYANCY -- I.E. MLCAPE LOCALLY REACHING 150 J/KG -- AS DEWPOINTS
   AROUND 50F GRAZE COASTAL AREAS. AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
   PROGRESS EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
   ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM 40-50 NM OFFSHORE...THE MOST INTENSE
   CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING BRIEFLY ORGANIZED/PERHAPS
   WEAKLY SUPERCELLULAR -- AS EVIDENCED WITH WEAK/CYCLONIC STORM-SCALE
   CIRCULATIONS THAT CROSSED PACIFIC/WAHKIAKUM COUNTIES. A STRONG WIND
   GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY WILL
   PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PQR...

   LAT...LON   46462403 46612378 46552354 46062355 45652372 45652396
               46282403 46462403 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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