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Mesoscale Discussion 1944
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MD 1944 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND FAR NERN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232036Z - 232300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AREAS EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 558 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A NEW TORNADO WATCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES IS CROSSING
   THE AL/GA BORDER EXTENDING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...AND WILL SPREAD
   E/NE OF UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH 558 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   MARGINAL BUOYANCY...LARGELY SUPPORTED BY LOWER 70S SFC
   DEWPOINTS...PRECEDES THIS CONVECTION TO THE S OF A WAVY WARM FRONT
   ORIENTED W/E ACROSS SRN GA. SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3.5-4.5 MB PER 2
   HRS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CORRESPOND TO
   ISALLOBARIC FLOW DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY NWD
   INTO EARLY EVENING. MODEST WARM ADVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
   SQUALL LINE MAY ALSO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION
   OVER S-CNTRL/SERN GA. STRONG SSWLY/SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH 50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 30-35 KT OF 0-1-KM SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
   TORNADOES WITH QLCS-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES/PRECEDING TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR STRONGER DEEP ASCENT TO
   ONLY GLANCE THE REGION...POOR LAPSE RATES...AND EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL
   COOLING...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SVR RISK IS LIMITED TO SOME
   EXTENT.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   30418291 31568295 32638307 33058267 32998178 31888114
               31238131 30498159 30418291 

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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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