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Mesoscale Discussion 1945
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SRN SC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 558...

   VALID 232258Z - 240000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 558 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIN QLCS PROGRESSING E/NE TOWARDS THE SAVANNAH
   RIVER. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND
   DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH A 50 PERCENT
   PROBABILITY.

   DISCUSSION...THIN N/S-ORIENTED QLCS FROM GREENE TO ATKINSON COUNTIES
   IN CNTRL GA HAS BEEN MOVING E/NE BETWEEN 40-50 KT. MEASURED WIND
   GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT WERE SAMPLED IN THE PAST HOUR IN W-CNTRL GA
   INCLUDING KMCN AND TREE DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED. PER SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS AND RAP SOUNDINGS...THE 63-64 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM
   SHOULD ROUGHLY DEMARCATE THE NRN EXTENT OF REALISTIC SEVERE
   POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR
   TO MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...30-40 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR PER CLX/CAE VWP DATA
   WILL SUPPORT LARGE CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF WIND/TORNADO
   POTENTIAL TOWARDS SRN SC.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 11/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   33168300 33488249 33688136 33608004 33387974 32907989
               32478029 32128065 31738111 31318184 31208224 31188275
               31248304 33168300 

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