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Mesoscale Discussion 1946
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0602 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240002Z - 240130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY LIMITED/SHORT-DURATION SEVERE RISK COULD
   CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL.
   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER
   MARGINAL...AND A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
   DEVELOPED/INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS SOUTHWEST
   MO...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-44 AND AROUND 25 MILES WEST/SOUTHWEST
   OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AS OF 550PM CST. A COUPLE OF MESOVORTICES
   HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. 

   THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
   A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES/LOW-LEVEL CAPE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 75 J/KG HAVE CONTRIBUTED
   TO STRONGER...ALBEIT LOW-TOPPED...UPDRAFTS. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO
   AND/OR WIND GUST/SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A
   COOLING/DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   ALREADY SLOWLY COOLING AHEAD OF THE LINE...SHOULD LEAD TO A
   DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 11/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37099396 37749336 37639264 36859258 36629276 36529364
               37099396 

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Page last modified: November 24, 2014
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