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Mesoscale Discussion 1949
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
   BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
   TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
   S-CNTRL IND.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
   HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
   WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
   WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
   60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

   AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
   COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
   JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
   WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
   OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
   STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
               37298827 37348860 37558889 

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Page last modified: November 24, 2014
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