Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1950
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1950 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
   EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
   OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
   MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
   ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
   AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
   STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
   IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
   POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
   BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
   PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

   NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
   THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
   OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
   HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..MEAD.. 11/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
               31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
               29948498 30008535 30218579 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 24, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities