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Mesoscale Discussion 1951
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0917 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST NEW YORK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241517Z - 241745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING...WILL
   CROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS
   IT SPREADS NE. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CONTINUE SPREADING NE
   WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW PRECEDING A FRONT ANALYZED FROM
   CENTRAL LOWER MI TO NWRN KY. AS THE SECOND VORT MAX IN A SERIES OF
   THREE TRAINING MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS LIFTS INTO SWRN
   ONTARIO...STRONGER ASCENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FEATURES WILL
   PROGRESS RAPIDLY NEWD...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE
   AFTERNOON -- REACHING COLUMBUS AND CLEVELAND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   HOWEVER...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL DCVA SPREADS NE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW-TOPPED
   REGIME. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT...RAPID DECREASE IN
   LIGHTNING COVERAGE IN NWRN/N-CNTRL OHIO...ALONG WITH A NOTABLE
   SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SAMPLED BY THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB JUST
   BELOW THE 700-MB LEVEL. THE PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY -- MLCAPE OF 100-300
   J/KG WITH EL TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -20C. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 60-70 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE WILMINGTON AND
   CLEVELAND OHIO VWPS AT 1 KM AGL WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
   MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PAUCITY OF
   BUOYANCY/DEARTH OF MOISTURE...AND LAGGING STRONGER
   FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR-TSTM
   RISK FROM OCCURRING.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41298251 41618170 41978056 42407931 40598014 39728192
               39588338 40298333 41298251 

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Page last modified: November 24, 2014
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