Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1952
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1952 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251138Z - 251315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER
   THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH A CORRESPONDING
   UPTICK IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN A
   STEADY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.  THE
   STORMS OVER MANATEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES ARE INVOF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
   ZONE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMP/DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEG F TO
   THE N AND MID 70S IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE STORMS.  A
   STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
   KMLB DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH BACKING NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
   CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENLARGEMENT IN HODOGRAPHS /200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
   SRH/.  GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /REF. 00Z MFL RAOB/
   CHARACTERIZED BY A 17 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND MODERATE
   BUOYANCY...STORM ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
   LOW...BUT NOT INSIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.  WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27708273 28938087 27998053 26908236 27708273 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 25, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities