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Mesoscale Discussion 1953
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MD 1953 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0923 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251523Z - 251700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL FL
   PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.  GIVEN LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 16-1630Z AND
   LACK OF ADDITIONAL ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN TPA/MLB WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
   ORGANIZATION /WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ OF A STORM IN WEST
   CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY.  THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG A RELATIVELY
   WEAK WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA /FROM JUST NORTH OF TPA TO NEAR 35 N
   MLB /AROUND TITUSVILLE FL//.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND
   0-3 KM EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THIS STORM IS IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE
   PRESENCE OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS COVERAGE FOR
   ADDITIONAL ROBUST STORMS WILL BE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...

   LAT...LON   28588146 28828143 29108083 28718057 28518063 28348094
               28328127 28588146 

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Page last modified: November 25, 2014
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