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Mesoscale Discussion 1954
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251913Z - 252115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN GULF
   OF MEXICO...AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
   FL. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF STORMS
   STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TAMPA AND VICINITY.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM
   ALONG AND N OF A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF TPA...TO
   MCO...TO TTS ACROSS CNTRL FL. THESE STORMS POSE A VERY LIMITED RISK
   FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
   MASS. ALONG AND S OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WEAK TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY
   STORMS FORMING S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
   WITH 0-1KM SHEAR WEAKER AT 10-20KT...THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
   LIMITED.

   SEMI-LINEAR CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN
   GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A SFC LOW FORMS IN THE
   SAME AREA....AND THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE W-CNTRL FL
   COAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
   BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY
   EVENTUALLY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
   W-CNTRL FL.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28238283 28468248 28398196 27528127 27098170 27238263
               27858291 28238283 

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Page last modified: November 25, 2014
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