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Mesoscale Discussion 1959
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 AM CST MON DEC 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/IL....FAR NRN AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 010735Z - 011230Z

   SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS MIXED
   WITH SLEET WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
   ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.02-0.07 IN/HR WILL BE PROBABLE.

   DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT KVIH AND KFYG CONFIRM
   PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.03-0.06 IN/HR WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
   SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW MO INTO SRN IL. AMDAR
   DATA FROM AROUND 06Z INVOF KSTL SAMPLED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
   AS COLD AS -8 DEG C NEAR 925 MB WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION AND
   WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 10 DEG C NEAR 875 MB. THIS TYPE OF
   THERMAL PROFILE WILL SHIFT SWD THIS MORNING IN PARALLEL WITH SURFACE
   FRONT ANALYZED FROM FAR NWRN TN SWWD INTO CNTRL AR TO A 1019 MB
   CYCLONE 30 W KHOT AT 07Z. 00Z WRF-BASED CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
   AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY N AND NE OF
   THIS CYCLONE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITHIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.
   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE WHERE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES REACH 29-32 DEG F...WHILE SLEET SHOULD DOMINATE ALONG
   THE NRN PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND.

   ..GRAMS.. 12/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36069239 35969320 36349403 37019411 37599378 37969298
               38289145 38868953 38928860 38828807 38418789 38018814
               37738859 37508940 37149026 36769089 36379168 36069239 

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Page last modified: December 01, 2014
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