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Mesoscale Discussion 1960
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 AM CST MON DEC 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SERN MO

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 011222Z - 011515Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
   BY LATE MORNING. UNTIL THEN...ICE ACCRETION RATES UP TO 0.10 IN/HR
   ARE PROBABLE WITHIN ELEVATED CONVECTION.

   DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
   THAT ARE LIKELY MIXED WITH SLEET ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND IN EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE
   HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
   SERN MO AND SRN IL. HERE...ICE ACCRETION RATES UP TO 0.10 IN/HR WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE...SUPPORTED BY KMDH ASOS ICING ESTIMATES AND
   CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...AMIDST SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
   INFERRED BY 12Z SGF/LZK RAOBS.

   TIME SERIES OF VWP DATA FROM LSX INDICATES GRADUAL SHIFTING OF
   N/NWLY WINDS TO NELY AT 1 KM AGL. THIS VEERING ALONG WITH RELAXING
   OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CAA AND SLOWING SEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
   FREEZING LINE. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WANING WHERE SUB-FREEZING
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF
   FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY 15-17Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 12/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37749018 38228940 38478872 38638800 38498784 38168793
               37918808 37258877 36668940 36438996 36429075 36619088
               36869080 37749018 

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Page last modified: December 01, 2014
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