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Mesoscale Discussion 1962
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CST WED DEC 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 030701Z - 031030Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCRETION RATES OF 0.02-0.08 IN/HR
   WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND TEMPORAL EXTENT BETWEEN
   10-12Z.

   DISCUSSION...ICE ACCRETION ESTIMATES OF 0.02-0.07 IN/HR HAVE BEEN
   SAMPLED IN SEVERAL ASOS STATIONS FROM FAR E-CNTRL NY AND NWRN MA
   INTO SRN NH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS PERSISTENT AREA OF
   FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE PEAKING IN SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT AND
   AMPLITUDE. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION AREA OVER E-CNTRL NY
   WILL MOVE EWD AS ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN
   NEW ENGLAND. PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTAINING SNOW N OF THE MIXED
   PTYPE TRANSITION ZONE...SREF/NAM/GFS/HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE GENERALLY
   APPEAR A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF FREEZING RAIN AS
   THE DOMINANT PTYPE ATTM. 05Z AMDAR DATA INVOF KBOS/KBDL SAMPLED A
   RELATIVELY THIN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER AOB ABOUT 775 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
   THAT THE CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MORE TRANSITORY AND
   LIMITED IN TEMPORAL EXTENT AT ANY ONE LOCATION FARTHER TO THE E/NE
   IN MAINE. HRRR PTYPE GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
   SCENARIO.

   ..GRAMS.. 12/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43477352 43557316 43567256 43777146 43977087 44257042
               44417007 44366975 44176981 43836999 43247098 43037135
               42817183 42727220 42667242 42717279 42837301 43207339
               43477352 

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Page last modified: December 03, 2014
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