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Mesoscale Discussion 1963
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CST WED DEC 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF COASTAL CNTRL CA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030835Z - 031000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A HIGHLY LOCALIZED RISK EXISTS FOR A WATERSPOUT TO BRIEFLY
   BECOME A TORNADO ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SANTA CRUZ...SAN MATEO
   AND MONTEREY COUNTIES.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 0830Z...A WEAKENING SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED AROUND
   8 NM SW OF COASTAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. THIS LOW-TOPPED STORM WITH 30
   DBZ ECHO HEIGHTS TO AROUND 17K FT HAS PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING
   STRIKES OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. RAP 1-H FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
   AMDAR DATA INVOF KSFO SUGGEST A SLIVER OF THIN SURFACE-BASED
   BUOYANCY EXISTS ALONG COASTAL CNTRL CA WITH SBCAPE OF 100-300 J/KG
   WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. LOW-LEVEL SLYS HAVE
   STRENGTHENED TO AROUND 40 KT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN KMUX
   VWP DATA...SUPPORTING A LARGE CYCLONIC HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY
   0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2. ALTHOUGH MESOCYCLONES WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN
   AS CELLS MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST /AS EVIDENCED BY THE LEAD
   STORM/...ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS MAY YET INTENSIFY UPSTREAM WITHIN A
   CONFLUENCE BAND W OF SANTA CRUZ/MONTEREY COUNTIES.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 12/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MTR...

   LAT...LON   37322250 37272224 37022188 36882175 36612168 36462183
               36582204 36932224 37322250 

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Page last modified: December 03, 2014
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