MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE CO...WRN KS...SW NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 242248Z - 250015Z
   
   LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE REGION.  BUT...DUE TO SPARSE COVERAGE AND SOMEWHAT
   MARGINAL/SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THE NEED FOR A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/WEST OF
   GOODLAND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A WEAK SLOW MOVING OR
   QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
   NEBRASKA...NORTH NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND...ACROSS THE GOODLAND AREA
   ...INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AN AREA OF UPPER FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
   THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   STORMS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN
   THE HOT THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
   
   A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
   SPREADS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS IN A BAND
   NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY.  HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST
   NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
   FARTHER TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR MORE
   SUSTAINED STORMS...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER SHEAR AT
   LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TYPE STRUCTURES.  STRONGEST
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH UPPER FORCING NORTH OF GOODLAND
   INTO AREAS WEST OF MCCOOK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... BUT PROBABLY
   WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING BY
   OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/24/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   38580408 39120379 39490314 39960221 40330167 40740080
               40719976 40279901 39539912 38909978 38290084 37730171
               37540285 37860328 38190384 38580408