MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL THRU NE NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 250323Z - 250500Z
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ONGOING TO THE NORTHEAST OF BROKEN
   BOW...NEAR ORD...AND ON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORFOLK
   VICINITY...APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF A
   30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET.  WHILE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
   MEAN FLOW IS SUPPORTING THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF
   STORMS...PROFILES HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE TENDENCY FOR REGENERATION
   OF STRONG NEW STORMS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ORD.  THIS
   TENDENCY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 05-06Z...BEFORE 
   VIGOROUS UPSTREAM STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE...ADVANCE INTO THE REGION.  THEREAFTER...
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO GENERALLY ONE EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
   POSSIBLE...BEFORE ACTIVITY FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...LOCALIZED
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT FREQUENT
   CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME
   MORE PROMINENT...ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT/TRAINING STORMS IN THE
   PRESENCE OF MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLY HIGH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/25/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   LAT...LON   40910015 41699987 42189911 42449798 42239689 41529707
               41239820 40849884 40649935 40659977 40910015