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Mesoscale Discussion 1966
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 PM CST FRI DEC 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR NERN LA THROUGH CENTRAL-NERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 060018Z - 060215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
   ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MS.  GIVEN THE COVERAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND OVERALL DURATION OF THE
   THREAT REMAINING SHORT /THROUGH 02-03Z/...A WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME INCREASE IN
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM FAR NERN LA INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN
   MS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE
   PER SURFACE AND STREAMLINE ANALYSES.  THESE STORMS WERE ALSO
   JUXTAPOSED WITHIN THE NERN EXTENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY /THOUGH
   MLCAPE IN THIS REGION RANGED BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG/...AND WITHIN A
   ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE AR
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 

   CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AND WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA.  HOWEVER...
   FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SBCINH AND
   THE EXISTENCE OF A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EWD EXTENT INTO ERN
   MS/NWRN AL SUGGEST A LIMITED THREAT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.  OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION FROM FAR NERN LA INTO CENTRAL
   MS FOR A SMALL POTENTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...POOR
   LOW-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 00Z JAN SOUNDING SUGGEST UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH WILL REMAIN WEAK...FURTHER LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 12/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32369170 33809048 34218962 34038887 32998947 32219088
               32169121 32369170 

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Page last modified: December 06, 2014
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