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Mesoscale Discussion 1969
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY...VT...NH...SW MAINE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 091759Z - 092200Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
   AND ERN NY NEWD ACROSS VT...NH INTO SWRN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON.
   SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE TO THE
   SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. MODEL INITIALIZATION CURRENTLY ANALYZES STRONG
   WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW FROM FAR
   SE NY NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE NEW YORK CITY WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
   A LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPH WITH 60 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM AND VEERING
   WINDS WITH HEIGHT...INDICATIVE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
   ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON
   WHERE SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S F. AS LIFT
   BECOMES ENHANCED...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SNOWFALL
   RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE LATEST WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
   THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACK MTNS FROM ERN NY
   INTO THE GREEN MTNS OF VT AND WHITE MTNS OF NH. THE HEAVIEST
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD OCCUR ABOVE 3500 FEET. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS IN
   LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES F...WET-BULBING SHOULD
   STILL RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY ALSO IMPACT SRN
   MAINE WHERE LIFT IS FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES.. 12/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42567448 42427509 42577560 42847575 43407537 44437384
               44947235 45107084 45047019 44627002 44167039 42867382
               42567448 

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Page last modified: December 09, 2014
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