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Mesoscale Discussion 1973
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN CA COAST AND EXTREME SWRN ORE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112001Z - 112100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY INTENSIFYING
   LOW-TOPPED STORMS AS THEY MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES
   HAVE SHOWN AN INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES NEWD
   INVOF THE NRN CA COAST.  TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG AS
   A BELT OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOVES NNEWD TO THE SE OF A
   VIGOROUS BUT NOW WEAKENING DISTURBANCE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
   COLUMBIA RIVER.  SCANT BUOYANCY /AROUND 100-250 J PER KG MUCAPE/
   WILL LIMIT STORM STRENGTH BUT A LOW POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A
   STRONGER STORM TO TRANSFER HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE IN
   THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS LIKELY RANGING 35-45 KT.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...

   LAT...LON   40382446 41322414 42312382 42202331 41482335 39812340
               39472367 39982403 40382446 

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Page last modified: December 11, 2014
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