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Mesoscale Discussion 1975
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA
   MOUNTAINS

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 120926Z - 121530Z

   SUMMARY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2
   IN/HR IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
   CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 09-15Z.  SNOW LEVELS
   WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 6000 FEET THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
   WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES EXTENDING FROM IN VICINITY AND
   WEST OF A PACIFIC FRONT.  AT 09Z...THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WAS
   MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL SIERRA MOUNTAINS.  MODELS REMAIN
   CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE ESEWD ACROSS THE REST OF
   CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SRN CA THROUGH 15Z...WITH THIS BOUNDARY REACHING
   SERN CA BY 18Z. GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...THE ATTENDANT
   BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SWD ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS.  03Z SREF SUGGESTED A HIGH
   LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO EXCEED 2 IN/HR IN THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN FROM ERN TUOLUMNE/SWRN ALPINE COUNTIES TO FAR ERN TULARE
   COUNTY.  

   THIS SNOWFALL RATE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO 90-120-METER 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA SPREAD ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   INLAND THIS MORNING.  THIS ASCENT COUPLED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
   WILL FAVOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

   ..PETERS.. 12/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

   LAT...LON   38501993 38271951 37941934 37721917 37521889 37041850
               36741836 36311817 36041812 35991818 36101823 36311847
               36571879 36911900 37281939 37731962 37951979 38192014
               38442016 38592008 38501993 

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Page last modified: December 12, 2014
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