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Mesoscale Discussion 1976
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MD 1976 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142023Z - 142300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW INCLUDING A
   PORTION OF CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED IN
   A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM WCNTRL OK INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX
   WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF 500 J/KG
   MLCAPE. THIS ZONE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE
   TO POCKETS OF MODEST DIABATIC WARMING WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS EXIST
   IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. ALSO MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND
   COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
   ADVANCING EWD AND OVERTAKING THE MOIST AXIS. STORMS HAVE UNDERGONE A
   RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND
   ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS DEVELOPS EWD. VWP DATA INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED
   WITH A 40 KT LLJ...AND A MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THOUGH
   WEAK INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...IT MAY
   BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 12/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33989806 34989801 35579787 35689699 34229621 33089631
               32509719 32689822 33989806 

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Page last modified: December 14, 2014
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