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Mesoscale Discussion 1977
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
   KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150022Z - 150145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE
   MAINLY IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WITH OVERALL STORM
   INTENSITY OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TEMPERED ACROSS THE REGION
   THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REGENERATE/PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
   OK EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE COLLOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. THIS INCLUDES
   A BRIEF TORNADO RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM IN THE PRESENCE OF 200-250
   M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER 00Z NORMAN OBSERVED SOUNDING/KTLX WSR-88D VWP
   DATA. HOWEVER...A GRADUALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN AN ALREADY
   MODEST BUOYANCY REGIME SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPER UPDRAFT VIGOR/TORNADO
   POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
   OTHERWISE REMAINING POSSIBLE. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...A BRIEF
   TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN
   CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
   SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS.

   OTHERWISE...BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING SOME BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO
   SOUTHEAST OK THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS POSING
   A MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WIND RISK WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 12/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38109889 37759762 37039632 35799524 34099516 33209560
               33469701 34449782 36699789 38109889 

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Page last modified: December 15, 2014
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