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Mesoscale Discussion 1978
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN TO CENTRAL NEB

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 150927Z - 151430Z

   SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW OR JUST SLEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   12Z WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR...GENERALLY 15-25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
   A LINE FROM 25 SW KEAR TO 15 ESE KYKN.  FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
   RATES TO AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER 3-HR APPEARS TO BE GREATEST IN A
   SMALLER AREA FROM ERN BOONE AND PLATTE COUNTIES TO CEDAR COUNTY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED PREDOMINATELY SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW BEING
   REPORTED WITHIN THIS RELATIVELY NARROW DISCUSSION AREA.  THESE
   OBSERVATIONS CORRELATE FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA WSR-88D DUAL POL
   IMAGERY SHOWING A MELTING ZONE WITHIN THIS SSW-NNE ORIENTED
   CORRIDOR.  THIS TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED-WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALSO
   MARKS THE LINE BETWEEN SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST
   AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EWD ACROSS FAR ERN
   NEB/WRN IA.

   WHILE 03Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A PRE-DOMINATE P-TYPE OF FREEZING
   RAIN IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...A SMALL SUB-SET AREA FROM MAINLY
   PLATTE TO CEDAR COUNTIES NEB WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
   FREEZING RAIN.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW FROM CENTRAL KS TO
   FAR NWRN MO INTO THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD MAINTAIN A
   SUFFICIENT WARM NOSE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
   NERN NEB.  MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEING 1-2
   DEGREES COLDER THAN MODELS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM W-E
   INTO THE MORNING SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE
   REST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z.

   ..PETERS.. 12/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42839719 42869727 42719702 42219697 41659734 41119837
               40399916 40459952 41299904 41959843 42349812 42899743
               42839719 

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Page last modified: December 15, 2014
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