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Mesoscale Discussion 1980
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
   OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
   OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
    WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
   OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
   COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

   DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
   MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.  

   WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
   H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
   AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
   STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
   SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
   RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
   SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
   REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

   LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
               33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966 

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Page last modified: December 17, 2014
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