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Mesoscale Discussion 1981
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MD 1981 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
   VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230945Z - 231145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF...SPREADING NWD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH TIME.  IN PARTICULAR...THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE VICINITY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A FEW STRONGER/NEWD-MOVING
   CELLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A
   VERY LOW-END SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY REVEALS STEADILY INCREASING ASCENT
   ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT SERN U.S. OVER THE PAST
   SEVERAL HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
   ACROSS TX ATTM -- INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
   CENTRAL CONUS.  WITH THIS FEATURE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK WRN-GULF
   SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER SLYS
   WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...A RETURN OF HIGHER THETA-E GULF
   AIR /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST REGION.  

   WITH A PERSISTENT WEDGE FRONT ACROSS AL SEPARATING COOL INLAND AIR
   FROM THE WARM/MOIST GULF AIR...EXPECT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE
   HIGHER THETA-E GULF AIR TO YIELD AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
   -- AND AS A RESULT A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/STABLE INLAND
   BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...S AND W OF THE WEDGE
   FRONT...LESS ELEVATED -- AND EVENTUALLY NEARLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS
   WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...COOLER TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 500 TO 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE
   CAPE...WHICH -- AIDED BY FAVORABLY INCREASING/VEERING FLOW WITH
   HEIGHT -- WILL PERMIT A FEW STRONGER/ROTATING CELLS TO EVOLVE FROM
   TIME TO TIME.

   INDEED...A FEW STORMS OVER THE NRN GULF S OF MOB/PNS/VPS HAVE SHOWN
   OCCASIONAL/WEAK CIRCULATIONS PER AREA WSR-88D LOOPS...AND EXPECT
   THESE STORMS TO BEGIN SPREADING INLAND OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 
   WHILE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN THE SHORT TERM --
   THUS KEEPING PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW...A
   LOW-END SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE /INCLUDING POTENTIAL
   FOR A BRIEF TORNADO -- PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM ROUGHLY
   PNS TO PAM WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONE POTENTIAL/.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 12/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30258815 30868793 30928714 30848654 30598564 29848495
               29438488 29368533 29488649 29858788 30258815 

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