MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN AND CENTRAL/SWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 282213Z - 282315Z
   
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
   MOVING SE ACROSS SERN MN AND CENTRAL/SWRN WI. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
   NECESSARY.
   
   A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT NWLY 250 MB JET
   IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
   GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   UPPER DISTURBANCE...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXISTS INVOF THE
   U.P. OF MI...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND
   INTO SERN MN. AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS DEVELOPED
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 70S...WHILE
   DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AOB -14 DEG C AT 500
   MB...RESULTING IN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS CONTRIBUTING
   TOWARD AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM SRN MN INTO
   CENTRAL WI. IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES
   WITH WWD EXTENT AWAY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...RESULTING IN LONG
   HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE/STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /AOA 40
   KT/...SUGGESTING MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.
   THUS...A FEW STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE LEVELS DURING THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING /BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING TAKES PLACE/...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS. AT THE TIME...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/28/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
   
   LAT...LON   43788867 43319009 43429146 43629211 44269228 44509096
               44848972 45408910 45298830 44488821 43788867